Lifestyle, Tech, Real Estate, Investing, Retirement
In today’s world with technology and inflation we are seeing different stages in the demand lifecycle.
With the covid-19 shut down starting in March of 2019 with the shutting of businesses we saw a huge disruption in most peoples lifestyle.
From remote work, remote school, no daycare for most. We see empty office space and shut down restaurants facing bankruptcy and over 110,000 shutting down going into 2021. Many choose to now get delivery through ubereats or door dash.
I heard a stat from Jeff Booth that in only 6 weeks we saw zoom go from 10 million to 300 million users. That’s a major lifestyle shift for America. This is allowing tech innovation to scale and continue at an exponential pace.
All of this change will force businesses to adapt, evolve or die-off like Kodak or blockbuster have. There is no doubt that with the addition of smartphones and the iPhones that are lives are really tied to social media and our mobile tech gadgets.
With people staying home, unemployed and furloughed it is interesting how many have become day traders through robinhood and cashapp stock accounts. People are investing their money into Tesla and bitcoin.
With East money, super low interest rates, and low money down to buy a home, along with bitcoin and the stock market it seems like everyone is an investor these days.
Going against a lot of these lifestyle and tech disruptions is the government, fed, and central banks trying to keep digital wealth alive with inflation.
The baby boomers don’t want to witness a retirement crisis. The top 10% own most of the asset wealth as its concentrated in real estate, stocks, bonds and treasuries.
The younger millennial generation is exponentially growing and adopting the innovative technology and seeing the digital world work very differently and with the access of free information and all of the abundance that people have now received because of technology’s innovation.
We have a 20-50 year credit and fiat money lifecycle that seems to be dieing now after gold no longer backing the US dollar since 1971.
People fear the US dollar soon will no longer be the dollar reserve due to all of the printing by the fed and the accelerating need to keep bailing out companies and providing stimulus, unemployment, UBI (Universal Basic Income) due to all of the furloughs and layoffs.
The fed and government is trying so hard to keep wealth from decades of inflation alive. Fiat money is based on faith and just digits on a screen.
The demand of the US dollar as a lifecycle and reserve currency is going away quickly as the euro and other countries move away from the US dollar. Some think bitcoin as a technology will see a network effect and get an adoption rate that exponentially grows and allows bitcoin to be the new global reserve currency.
The big demand in stocks and real estate as well as other assets can be said to be very much correlated to all of the printing of money by the fed.
With all of that money printed it has to flow somewhere, so we are seeing assets go up by a lot, so we are getting late in the demand cycle. Also we have a challenge with potential hyperinflation like Venezuela and zimbabwe have dealt with.
The bond bubble is also coming to an end as some will sell amd chaed yields somewhere else. That demand lifecycle could be nearing an end. The challenge is the inflation can cause existing bond holders to be hurt badly due to the market demanding higher yields as their older bonds with lower paying yields ake the face value less.
With such low yields it won’t take much of a rise in yields to affect people. There’s a continued downward pressure to lower interest rates for all global currencies to compete to lend money.
My concern for the nearly $300 trillion on global debt later in 2021 that with inflation and higher interest rates that nobody can afford to pay the e paying debt with higher interest rates as so many people don’t have an emergency fund and are very leveraged with their business and personal lifestyle.
The fed and banks have to keep lowering interest rates to keep the demand up to continue to borrow and create more debt and consume in the economy.
This demand lifecycle is getting more to an end. Technology is forcing digital currency with the government having the right to charge you negative rates.
So the economy had a good 20-50 year run, but we should see that it was a good run, but technology and it’s disruption was going to cause this to all happen.
The government and socialism is a very inefficient system with government spending where they don’t ask contractors to compete on pricing.
This happened with college in the USA and we see it in health care as well. Now we see that the Democrats want to forgive all student debt.
The new demand lifecycle is coming up for something more scarce as demand grows in the lifecycle. This includes hold, silver, land and fine art.
Some would argue that the 21 million bitcoins would be considered a store of value. With the network effects someday their is some truth potentially for that. None of this is meant as financial advice so do your own research.
The idea is that with the hyperinflation of printed money creating more supply becoming worth less and less people are seeking a store of value of something scarce.
This could even include highly desireable real estate with lake front or neighborhoods that people want to live in. For example many are moving from the cities to the suburbs.
The goal of the above is to let you know that innovation and economies evolve as we make way for the new. Understand that as we move out of the demand part of the lifecycle of one thing we move into a new demand lifecycle of another thing.
We saw this with Kodak to the smartphone and blockbuster turning to streaming with Netflix. This is an example of flexibility, efficiency, Lowe costs and being able to do things remotely.
There is a concept referred to exiter’s pyramid that was created before bitcoin, but the idea as inflation or credit contraction happens there is a flight to safety down the pyramid to the best store of value which is considered gold and silver. See the image below
Understand that there are only about $2 trillion+ physical US dollars as most is just digital and its based on faith and digital transferring and payments. So as others flee the US dollar they chase the precious metals just like they chased liquid assets for yield like the bonds, stocks and bitcoin because they aren’t getting returns like they use to from banks.
This has been a huge problem for retirees and baby boomers and they need to live off of their retirement savings, so it’s caused many to go into risky assets to chase yields.
Gold and silver don’t give you cash flow, but they have been known to be a store of value for thousands of years, so many think the demand lifecycle will be climbing as the fed prints more money.
I personally buy US minted coins from when they had silver in them as they are worth money for their melted value.
Data, On-Demand technology disruption
The world is on information overload right now, there is so much noise that others are looking for the signal and wisdom.
I am looking through my normal 8 news sites that I’ve followed headlines on daily for 2 years and you add in twitter and there is so much information going on with so many narratives of the future and so many differing opinions from smart people.
At the time of this writing Biden is ready to be sworn-in within the next 48 hours.
Today is Martin Luther King Day and it’s a slow news day as it’s a holiday. Twitter is a great source for succinct context and plenty of great charts and data. It’s busy even on a slow news day.
Data is the Future and being able to digest quick amounts through headlines and twitter for the context is needed to optimize your time.
Technology disruption is going to keep being a strong narrative with many companies showing exponential growth and network effects.
I’m noticing what’s popular in today’s world Is that everyone wants everything on-demand and I think of you can keep the supply side costs agile and adjust accordingly than you’ve got a better business model than most.
People want their videos on-demand, movies, they want delivery, food delivery and much more now that everyone is a remote worker.
The content I wrote falls into this category because read it when they have time on their schedule.
In today’s world even in real estate if you aren’t doing showings because of covid-19 at least have on-demand virtual tour for others to see since others have health risk concerns and are use to doing things in a remote way.￼
You must keep your labor costs and inventory costs very agile in today’s world to stay competitive. That’s why the ubereats, door dash can stay agile with workers’ hours.
Dropshipping with amazon and Shopify is so popular it reduces a lot of risks and costs for holding inventory and makes it easier to scale.
I will continue to watch where technology takes us and keep you informed through my content, stay tuned for charts, context and important data.
With the world that we now live in with lifestyles catering to work from home we will continue to see everyone want instant gratification and on-demand. New Data and news will continue to come in at a rapid speed with learning being a big part of our future in order to stay ahead. Continue to educate yourself daily and keep learning as much as you can to stay ahead.
Efficiency Vs. Inefficiency
When you look at the big picture of what’s happening in the world I see these two forces as Technology is exponentially becoming more efficient every day as data and A.I. Is helping with innovation. There is machine learning and network effects that are our future.
on the other side of the coin is reckless government spending and Inflation which is completely inefficient and when they pay for everything they don’t get competitive bids with contractors, do their ends to being more and more money printed and higher taxes to try to fill in the gap.
One exciting concept to me is the 2-sided marketplace that is so popular now with tech and innovation. It had been popularized by Airbnb, DoorDash, uber ears, postmates, Grubhub, bitesquad, uber and Lyft.
This is a great way for companies to control their supply and demand and especially be economical and optimize their labor and supply side to be more efficienct
The efficiency comes from feedback, data and reducing friction for an easy to use consumer experience.
With so much digital supply of everything these days I do like Silver because of its scarcity and low supply.
It seems to be a good store of value so I have bought some old us currency with silver for the melt value off of eBay.
If the economy gets bad or hyperinflation gets bad I’m not sure how easy it will be to spend the silver at the store.
After all of the above information it’s a lot to think of and if you ever think of selling your Minnesota homevbecause you are motivated, or want to sell with amazing seller financing terms click here